Author: Sarika Patil

Weekly News Summary

20th June 2025

Market data as on 20th June 2025

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth meeting in a row and kept a projection for two rate cuts this year. What the central bank did change, however, was its outlook on inflation and economic growth amid those uncertainties. Fed officials now see inflation staying higher this year than previously estimated and economic growth going lower than prior predictions.

U.S. Senate panel proposed a full phase-out of solar and wind energy tax credits by 2028 but extended the incentive to 2036 for hydropower, nuclear and geothermal energy, which are favored by President Donald Trump’s administration,
Trump reiterated plans to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals to incentivize drug manufacturing to return to the U.S., citing a Commerce Department probe under Section 232. Trump accused the European Union of not offering a “fair deal” and warned that they must agree to a better deal or face higher tariffs. Trump also described Japan as "tough" but hinted at a potential deal, noting, “there’s a chance.
U.S. President Donald Trump will decide on whether the country will directly attack Iran within the next two weeks, the White House said on Thursday, with the president still seeing a path towards nuclear talks with Tehran.
British retail sales volumes recorded their sharpest drop since December 2023 last month, as demand fell after shoppers splurged on food, summer clothes and home improvements the month before, official figures showed on Friday. Retail sales volumes dropped by 2.7% in May.
Brussels negotiators hope that offering to accept U.S. tariffs of 10% across all of the European Union's exports into the United States will avert any higher duties on cars, drugs and electronics, newspaper Handelsblatt reported on Monday. Citing high-ranking EU negotiators, the paper said the offer to U.S. counterparts would come only under certain conditions and would not be billed as permanent

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Crude Oil
Conflicting reports over Iran seeking a ceasefire, coupled with soft data from top oil importer China, also weighed on oil prices on Monday, causing them to taper some gains made on the onset of the Middle East conflict last week. Trump on Monday evening said in a social media post that ‘everyone should evacuate Tehran,’ ramping up concerns over U.S. involvement and a rapid escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict.
Oil was also pressured by mixed economic readings from top oil importer China, which presented mixed cues on the world’s second-largest economy. China’s industrial production grew less than expected in May, while retail sales beat expectations.
Oil prices settled higher on Wednesday in a volatile session as investors weighed the chance of supply disruptions from the Iran-Israel conflict and potential direct U.S. involvement. A source familiar with internal discussions said one option Trump and his team were considering included joining Israel in strikes against Iranian nuclear sites. Direct U.S. involvement would widen the conflict, putting energy infrastructure in the region at higher risk of attack. The biggest fear for the oil market is the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts said in a note.

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Global News
Russian air strikes killed at least 14 people in Kyiv as multiple locations in the Ukrainian capital were hit by drones and missiles or struck by intercepted projectiles.
Iran and Israel launched new missile strikes at each other on Wednesday as the air war between the two longtime enemies entered a sixth day despite a call from U.S. President Donald Trump for Tehran's unconditional surrender.
Japan's exports fell in May for the first time in eight months as big automakers like Toyota opens new tab were hit by sweeping U.S. tariffs, and the failure of the Asian nation to clinch a trade deal this week will likely pile pressure on its fragile economy.
According to a survey from the World Gold Council, 95% of central bank respondents expect global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months. A record 43% said they plan to increase their own holdings during that time. At the same time, 73% of central banks anticipate a moderate or significant decline in US dollar holdings within global reserves over the next five years. Respondents expect the share of other currencies, such as the euro and renminbi, will also increase over the same five-year period.
Japan's government plans to cut sales of super-long bonds by about 10% from the original plan in a rare revision to its bond programme for the current fiscal year, trimming overall bond issuance as a result, a draft document seen by Reuters showed.
British inflation cooled in May as expected by the Bank of England, which is set to keep interest rates on hold this week while it assesses international energy markets rocked by escalating conflict in the Middle East. Consumer prices rose in annual terms by 3.4% in May,
China kept benchmark lending rates unchanged as expected on Friday, after Beijing rolled out sweeping monetary easing measures a month earlier to support the economy.
Hiking interest rates only gradually as raw material costs rise could heighten the risk of an upward spiral in wages and consumer prices, the Bank of Japan said in a research paper released this week.
Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that trade negotiations with the U.S. "remained in a fog" despite efforts by both sides to seek an agreement.

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India
Market data as on 20th June 2025
India’s unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in May due to seasonal factors, especially a sharp rise in urban joblessness. While rural unemployment improved slightly, the overall labour participation and worker population ratios declined, driven mainly by a reduction in urban female employment.
The escalating Iran–Israel conflict is threatening to disrupt Red Sea trade, a vital shipping route for India’s trade with West Asia and Europe. Freight and insurance costs are expected to rise, especially after Houthi attacks in the region. India's trade worth over $120 billion could be impacted, with strategic risks tied to energy imports through the Strait of Hormuz.
Cyberattacks are rising at an annual rate of 7% among Moody’s-rated global entities, increasing risk to their creditworthiness. A growing number of companies are experiencing multiple cyber incidents, driven by third-party software risks and persistent vulnerabilities. Sectors most affected include healthcare, finance, and education.
Indian diamond exporters are optimistic as Chinese retailers launch buyback schemes to revive interest in natural diamonds. Brands like Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and others have initiated these offers, prompting buyer interest. They estimate that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure of inflation will be 3.1%, compared with 2.8% previously. Though they see that measure dropping back to 2.4% in 2026. And the US economy is now projected to grow at an annualized pace of 1.4% instead of 1.7%. The unemployment rate is seen edging up to 4.5% from 4.4% previously.
Japanese company Nippon Steel has officially bought U.S. Steel for $14.9 billion, paying $55 per share. U.S. Steel is a well-known but struggling American steelmaker. Nippon Steel had to agree to give the U.S. government some control something that’s very unusual in business. Lets the U.S. President (Trump) choose one board member.

India’s WPI inflation eased to 0.39% in May 2025, its lowest in 14 months, driven by falling prices in primary goods, fuel, and some manufactured items. Food inflation and core WPI also moderated. This cooling trend supports a positive inflation outlook, with the RBI revising FY26 inflation forecast lower.

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4

Source: Company data, Institutional Research	Company Snapshot / Havells India Ltd. (Havells) is the leading manufacturer of fast moving electrical goods and major power distribution equipment. The company is head quartered in Noida and having presence across geographies. Havells enjoys enviable market dominance across a wide spectrum of products, including Industrial & Domestic Circuit Protection Devices, Cables & Wires, Motors, Fans, Modular Switches, Home Appliances, Air Conditioners, Electric Water Heaters, Power Capacitors, CFL Lamps, and Luminaires for Domestic, Commercial and Industrial Applications. The company has very strong distribution network not only in India but also across the geographies. The company has 12 state-of-the-art manufacturing plants in India located at Haridwar, Baddi, Sahibabad, Faridabad, Assam, Alwar and Neemrana, manufacturing globally acclaimed products, synonymous with excellence and precision in the electrical industry. / Investment Rationale / Favorable market conditions and strong demand will help them to grow / Indian economy is improving with the higher momentum. It is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. This growth helps to create greater per capita income and also the stronger demand. With the increasing robustness of the market, there is huge opportunity for the electrical goods and consumption businesses. Total domestic market size of electrical segment is approximately Rs.45, 000crs. According to the company and the industry resources the electrical segment vertical likely to grow by 12% CAGR for next 5 years. The home appliances vertical is also having great demand for from the domestic market. The market size has increase with the higher momentum and will also likely in the upcoming future. Total market size of the home appliances is at Rs.70,000 Crs. And will likely to grow by 15% CAGR in the next 5 years. / Robust business structure gives edge over its peers / Havells owns some of the most prestigious brands like Havells, Lloyd, Crabtree, Standard and Promptec. Its network constitutes of 4000 professionals, over 7575 dealers and 40 branches in the country. Its products are available in 40 countries. The company has 12 state-of-the-art manufacturing plants in India located at Haridwar, Baddi, Sahibabad, Faridabad, Assam, Alwar and Neemrana, manufacturing globally acclaimed products, synonymous with excellence and precision in the electrical industry. Havells along with its brands have earned the distinction of being the preferred choice of electrical products for discerning individuals and industrial consumers both in India and abroad. Havells offers same quality products for both Indian and International markets. It is committed to keep powering the world with its state-of-the-art innovations and energy-efficient solutions. Currently over 90% of its product offerings are energy efficient and manufactured in-house. / Valuation / At the CMP of `661, Havells is trading at 50.4x, and 39.06x its FY19E, and FY20E EPS of `13.16 and `17.00. Compared to its peers; Havells is trading at a discount P/E multiple, although its margins are better than or comparable to peers. We initiate coverage on Havells India Ltd with a BUY rating and attach a multiple of 47.6 xs to Havells’ FY20E earnings (EPS) to arrive at the target price of `809, indicating a potential upside of 22%.

Source: Company data, Institutional Research	Company Snapshot / Havells India Ltd. (Havells) is the leading manufacturer of fast moving electrical goods and major power distribution equipment. The company is head quartered in Noida and having presence across geographies. Havells enjoys enviable market dominance across a wide spectrum of products, including Industrial & Domestic Circuit Protection Devices, Cables & Wires, Motors, Fans, Modular Switches, Home Appliances, Air Conditioners, Electric Water Heaters, Power Capacitors, CFL Lamps, and Luminaires for Domestic, Commercial and Industrial Applications. The company has very strong distribution network not only in India but also across the geographies. The company has 12 state-of-the-art manufacturing plants in India located at Haridwar, Baddi, Sahibabad, Faridabad, Assam, Alwar and Neemrana, manufacturing globally acclaimed products, synonymous with excellence and precision in the electrical industry. / Investment Rationale / Favorable market conditions and strong demand will help them to grow / Indian economy is improving with the higher momentum. It is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. This growth helps to create greater per capita income and also the stronger demand. With the increasing robustness of the market, there is huge opportunity for the electrical goods and consumption businesses. Total domestic market size of electrical segment is approximately Rs.45, 000crs. According to the company and the industry resources the electrical segment vertical likely to grow by 12% CAGR for next 5 years. The home appliances vertical is also having great demand for from the domestic market. The market size has increase with the higher momentum and will also likely in the upcoming future. Total market size of the home appliances is at Rs.70,000 Crs. And will likely to grow by 15% CAGR in the next 5 years. / Robust business structure gives edge over its peers / Havells owns some of the most prestigious brands like Havells, Lloyd, Crabtree, Standard and Promptec. Its network constitutes of 4000 professionals, over 7575 dealers and 40 branches in the country. Its products are available in 40 countries. The company has 12 state-of-the-art manufacturing plants in India located at Haridwar, Baddi, Sahibabad, Faridabad, Assam, Alwar and Neemrana, manufacturing globally acclaimed products, synonymous with excellence and precision in the electrical industry. Havells along with its brands have earned the distinction of being the preferred choice of electrical products for discerning individuals and industrial consumers both in India and abroad. Havells offers same quality products for both Indian and International markets. It is committed to keep powering the world with its state-of-the-art innovations and energy-efficient solutions. Currently over 90% of its product offerings are energy efficient and manufactured in-house. / Valuation / At the CMP of `661, Havells is trading at 50.4x, and 39.06x its FY19E, and FY20E EPS of `13.16 and `17.00. Compared to its peers; Havells is trading at a discount P/E multiple, although its margins are better than or comparable to peers. We initiate coverage on Havells India Ltd with a BUY rating and attach a multiple of 47.6 xs to Havells’ FY20E earnings (EPS) to arrive at the target price of `809, indicating a potential upside of 22%.

CMP (`)	Target (`)
661	809

Potential Upside	Absolute Rating
22%	BUY

Market Info (as on September 06, 2018)
BSE Sensex	38,018
Nifty S&P	11,477

Stock Detail
BSE Group	A
BSE Code	517354
NSE Code	HAVELLS
Bloomberg Code	HAVL IN
Market Cap (`bn)	415.34
Free Float (%)	38%
52wk Hi/Lo	728.95 / 454.00
Avg. Daily Volume (NSE)	555,063
Face Value / Div. per share (`)	1.00 / 3.00
Shares Outstanding (mn)	625

Promoters	Public	Others
59.55	40.45	0.01

Financial Snapshot (`mn)
Y/E Mar	FY17	FY18	FY19E	FY20E
Net Sales	61,558	81,464	97,757	1,17,308
EBITDA	8,182	10,434	12,708	15,954
PAT	4,941	6,735	8,232	10,631
EPS	7.91	10.77	13.16	17.00
ROE (%)	15%	18%	20%	22%
ROCE (%)	20%	23%	25%	29%
P/E	58.1	66.5	54.4	42.1
EV/EBITDA	34.4	42.7	34.9	27.7

Share Price Performance

Rel. Perf.	1Mth	3 Mths	6Mths	1Yr
Havells (%)	3.04	25.2	30.6	34.1
Sensex (%)	(4.7)	2.1	5.1	25.0

CMP (`)	Target (`)
661	809

Potential Upside	Absolute Rating
22%	BUY

Market Info (as on September 06, 2018)
BSE Sensex	38,018
Nifty S&P	11,477

Stock Detail
BSE Group	A
BSE Code	517354
NSE Code	HAVELLS
Bloomberg Code	HAVL IN
Market Cap (`bn)	415.34
Free Float (%)	38%
52wk Hi/Lo	728.95 / 454.00
Avg. Daily Volume (NSE)	555,063
Face Value / Div. per share (`)	1.00 / 3.00
Shares Outstanding (mn)	625

Promoters	Public	Others
59.55	40.45	0.01

Financial Snapshot (`mn)
Y/E Mar	FY17	FY18	FY19E	FY20E
Net Sales	61,558	81,464	97,757	1,17,308
EBITDA	8,182	10,434	12,708	15,954
PAT	4,941	6,735	8,232	10,631
EPS	7.91	10.77	13.16	17.00
ROE (%)	15%	18%	20%	22%
ROCE (%)	20%	23%	25%	29%
P/E	58.1	66.5	54.4	42.1
EV/EBITDA	34.4	42.7	34.9	27.7

Share Price Performance

Rel. Perf.	1Mth	3 Mths	6Mths	1Yr
Havells (%)	3.04	25.2	30.6	34.1
Sensex (%)	(4.7)	2.1	5.1	25.0